New Casino Game Statistical Analysis
For new game developers, it takes more than a creative game with enticing rules and gameplay decisions to capture the interest of Casino Directors and Floor Managers. Casinos expect a comprehensive statistical analysis and evaluation of any prospective game to accompany a game developer’s proposal.
Decision makers want to be sure that any addition to their gaming portfolio will be profitable, entertaining, and keep players interested. While other companies focus solely on the statistical analysis itself, we have found that casinos prefer to see proposals that also consider the optimal interaction between game structure, player decision trees, and house edge to create a balanced game.
Precision Consulting has had substantial success in helping its clients get games on casino floors. Here are two of the many games that we’ve placed in major Nevada, Atlantic City, Reservation, or Riverboat casinos in the past 5 years.
For a presentation about how we can help get your game approved, please see here:
What we do
We work with developers of table games, card games, video poker machines, slot machines, and other types of casino games. We provide services that include: House Edge Estimation, Game Structure & Payout Optimization, and Player Enjoyment Analysis.
- House Edge Estimation
- Calculating the amount the casino can expect to earn from your game is not as straightforward as most people believe. Most companies approach these analyses through straightforward odds calculations; however, almost every new casino game entails player decisions that can impact outcomes. The classic example of this is Black Jack. A player who plays “perfectly” (optimally according to basic strategy) can expect a house edge of about 0.5%. A player who plays poorly or randomly can result in the house earning more than 1%. Thus, different playing styles, as well as games with more complex rules, cannot be modeled solely based on Probability Theory. Instead, Monte Carlo simulations need to be conducted. These simulations involve: (1) coding the game rules into a programming language such as Matlab, R or Python, (2) coding the possible player behaviors as realistically as possible, and (3) let this script “play” millions of game rounds and observe the outcome. The house edge, as well as a confidence interval around it, can then be directly estimated from this outcome very accurately. Likewise, this procedure allows evaluating the impact of changing the game rules and expected player behavior on the house edge.
- Game Structure & Payout Optimization
- Following the estimation of the house edge based on your games current configuration, we assess if the edge is appropriate for the type of game. Slot Machines and Table Games both have a range around what casinos consider an appropriate house edge. If the edge is too high, the players won’t win enough to continue playing. If the edge is too low, it may not be worth the casino’s time. We help you think through each game play and payout structure decision, and determine how rule changes affect the house edge. We allow you to have direct insight and involvement into the optimization process and once this is completed, your game will have the best possible game play rules and payout structure.
- Player Enjoyment Analysis
- Most other companies who offer these services to game developers neglect to include a key assessment in their analyses. While the house edge is the most commonly used calculation to assess new games, it is equally important to ensure that players have the ability to “go on a run.” The terminology “going on a run” is actually a simple way to communicate a given game’s standard deviation, measured in hourly earnings a player can win or lose. While there is a relationship between the house edge and a players’ standard deviation (the higher the edge, the lower the variance of a given game), changes in rules and payout structures can have disproportionately affect these two measures. As a result, we consult with you to suggest the optimal trade-off between house edge and player standard deviation to make your game as “fun” as possible.
Most of our clients engage us to provide all three of these services. So our final deliverable is usually a report that includes the house edge estimation along with the reasoning behind the selected probabilities chosen for each rule and decision point based on game structure, payout, and player enjoyment considerations. Beyond this, we also provide an analysis of how your game compares with other similar games. Finally, we can of course craft individualized studies based on your specific needs.
Our final report has been used successfully by our clients to engage with Casino Directors and Floor Managers. We occasionally agree to work with our clients more directly in terms of achieving casino placement.
Why engage with us
One important question to ask yourself before paying for this type of service is “how will this help me.” We assist you in maximizing the chance of getting your game approved. Casinos constantly receive proposals for new games and Floor Managers and Casino Directors have heard virtually every pitch imaginable. We’ve conducted these pitches ourselves and we know what casinos like to see.
We have a proven track record of success in helping game developers get in the door and get their game on the casino floor. So if you’re at the point where you’re nearly ready to present your game to casinos, you can contact us for a free consultation.
We understand the importance and necessity of confidentiality when dealing with any trading model or idea, and provide all of our prospective clients with a Non-Disclosure Agreement immediately upon contact. This ensures you that your idea and/or existing model will not be shared with any third parties, and your consultation with us is completely confidential.
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