Click Fraud Protection

Forensic Statistics

Unscrupulous statisticians and sometimes entire firms will fabricate data, often by dishonestly sampling the data in a way that biases the results. The common myth that “you can make statistics say whatever you want it to say” comes from such manipulations. In fact, there is generally only one correct way to analyze and interpret the results of a study using the same set of data. Our replication validity services will help you determine whether or not the analysis that you are reviewing is factual.

Precision Consulting consultants have been retained as forensic statisticians by a variety of government agencies including the Department of Justice, the City Public Service of Texas, and Maximus Federal Services, as well as by private firms such as Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. When choosing a statistician to consult and represent your firm in a statistical dispute, it is vital that you choose someone rock-solid in knowledge, background, and mathematical expertise. The below describes a typical series of steps that would be followed in order to resolve your problem.

The first (and most important) part of our replications are ensuring that the data set itself was constructed logically. From there, we usually confirm that the sample demographic and descriptive statistics are reasonable compared to the population values, and we calculate the effective power of the results.

Once the data itself is confirmed, we replicate the statistical procedure, step by step, to ensure the validity of the results. While no two statistical runs will be precisely the same (especially if the tests are non-parametric simulations), the margin of error on runs of larger subsamples (anything over several hundred samples) will be very small. Consequently, larger deviations in the sample results may indicate falsification in data manipulation. Finally, we will provide suggestions for other tests to run that may be more appropriate or indicative of the actual analytic goals.

Confidentiality

We understand the importance and necessity of confidentiality, and provide all of our prospective clients with a Non-Disclosure Agreement immediately upon contact. This ensures you that your information will not be shared with any third parties, and your consultation with us is completely confidential.

Please click here to read our Data Security Policy.